A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
