The Astonishing Scoring Streak Propels Villa's Improbable Title Charge
A mere eight weeks in the past when the Villa attacker found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as the Villa manager admonished him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his displays were a sign or the source for the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. After the England international curled home his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and after failing to win any of their first six games, now sit just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
It remains a particularly tough query to address. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been wholly dominant during this run, even as the wins have stacked up.
According to the data, in only two games has the side posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a team that have just won ten consecutive victories, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival Villa must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, cannot keep on blasting the football into the top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Could it be an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the player he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned Rogers now would be leading a title charge while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the hero stood in front of the North End after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.